Feb. 09, 2011 - Issue #799 : Valentines Style
Issues
The story remains the same
Nothing may change despite political shake up at the Legislature
After almost 40 years of very predictable, business-as-usual politics in Alberta, now it seems everything is happening at once.
Over the course of the last three weeks, the Premier announced his intention to resign in September, the Finance Minister and the Deputy Premier both resigned in order to launch leadership campaigns and the Leader of the Official Opposition announced that he will be resigning at the end of the spring session. At the same time, former Liberal MLA David Taylor joined the Alberta Party, which now brings the number of parties represented in the provincial legislature to four.
But what does this all mean? The blogosphere and twitterverse have been abuzz with entries about change, and how this signals a new level of engagement by Albertans in the provincial political system.
Certainly, there is movement and flux in the system right now at a level we have not seen in a very long time, if ever. But movement doesn't necessarily mean change.
Consider, for example, a likely scenario on the right. Given the party's current concern with its right flank, it is quite likely that Ted Morton will be elected the party's new leader. Given that Morton and the Wildrose Alliance are cut of the exact same ideological fabric, it would be quite redundant to have a Morton-led PC party and a Smith-led WA party running against each other in future elections. The result, as we saw play out federally between the Reform/Alliance party and the Conservatives, would almost certainly be an amalgamation of the two parties under one banner.
Would this result in significant change on the right of Alberta's political system? Cosmetically, maybe, but certainly not anything deep or meaningful. The bottom line is that the extreme right views espoused by both Morton and Smith (and incidentally, Ed Stelmach during his tenure as a member of the "deep six" in Klein's caucus), are really not new or different—we've been governed by them since 1993. What would be new about Morton/Smith policies of low taxes, increased privatization, sabotaging public health care, funding private schools, cutting income supports, and slashing royalties? Absolutely nothing. Premier Stelmach may be trying to paint himself and his party as moderates for the sake of demonizing the Wildrose Alliance, but his record and that of his government speaks for itself. There is no change on the horizon on this front.
Many have also been pointing to the Alberta Party, and the current woes of the Alberta Liberal Party, as an indication that a new style of politics is taking root—one which will capture the imagination of cynical and frustrated Albertans and change our system as we know it.
The rise of the Alberta Party is certainly a positive dynamic, as it shows an important level of engagement by a broad range of Albertans from around the province. For the most part, however, the movers and shakers in the Alberta Party are not new to the political system in this province. Many of them spent years working within the ranks of the established parties. And as the Liberals fade away in relevance, and the Conservatives look to the right, more and more people from both parties are jumping to the Alberta Party.
The most likely scenario here is a complete vanishing of the Liberal Party as it exists today, with the Alberta Party taking over its place in the legislature. But again, the question of what will change other than cosmetics must be asked. Certainly losing the "Liberal" label will result in more people looking at the Alberta Party as an alternative, but they will also suffer from the challenge of trying to develop coherent policy given a membership that spans from the centre to the far right, at least in terms of economic policies. Without a coherent platform, it will be difficult for this party to make significant gains in the legislature, and without a significant presence in the legislature, they are not likely to have any more impact on the province than the Liberals have in the last 10 years.
As always, however, this is all just speculation. There is no doubt that a small window is opening whereby an engaged and informed population can take advantage of flux and uncertainty to completely remake politics in Alberta. The right combination of activism and participation by Albertans could spread out the votes enough to create a situation whereby a minority is elected in the next election, and that could make all the difference in the world. But this would require a level of engagement that Albertans have not shown in some time, and that none of the existing political parties have seemed very interested in nurturing.
Although it makes for interesting times for political wonks, it is unlikely that the current movements in Alberta politics will result in anything other than cosmetic changes over the long term. Hopefully Albertans will prove me wrong. V
Ricardo Acuña is the executive director of the Parkland Institute, a non-partisan public policy research institute housed at the University of Alberta.
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